In 2024? Not really. Not on a large scale at least.
But it will start doing so in 5 to 10 years from now. At first it will not be about “replacing”, but more about preventing new employees from entering the workforce. This will happen because the current employees will be so much more efficient that no new ones will be needed.
Even more, AI will increase in taking away jobs in 15 or 20 years from now. Blocking the entrance into the workforce will be even more important, as employee efficiency will increase exponentially. In addition, outright replacements will happen, as the technology advancements by the end of the next decade will probably enable this. Here, we should take into account quantum computing becoming a reality by 2040 and huge, unbelievable improvements of the AI systems.
Therefore, the biggest threat comes from the increase of the efficiency of existing employees. This means that no new employees will be needed for similar positions in the future. And this could be a real big problem for students graduating in the next 5 to 10 years. It will definitely be a huge problem for students starting school today.
In fact, primary school students will face 3 problems by the time they start working, in about 15 to 20 years from now:
#1 – They will find A LOT less open positions for current job types, as increased efficiency will enable existing employees to do more, so no new jobs will be created.
#2 – Many jobs which are now available to humans will be by then completely automated.
#3 – Most of the available job types in 20 years will be absolutely new, not yet invented now. The most tricky part is that today’s primary students, who are tomorrow’s employees, haven’t received the proper education for these newly invented jobs. As the school today can not possibly prepare them for the yet uninvented jobs… There might be one thing which could improve the 3rd problem: skills. Unfortunately, there is not much that can be done for problems #1 and #2…
